How expert are the experts?

Following is a quote from the Buttonwood columnist is this week’s Economist.

“In his book “Expert Political Judgment”, Philip Tetlock shows that political forecasters are worse than crude algorithms at predicting events. The more prominent the expert (ie, the more they were quoted by the news media), the worse their records tended to be. There is also an inverse relationship between the confidence of the individual forecaster and the accuracy of their predictions.”

I wonder if these statements apply to economists as well as political experts.

(The author of this comment has a web log on economics at https://economics102.wordpress.com/)

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