Economists forecasting

Likely government budget cuts and the prospect for messy political fights over fiscal policy will weigh on the U.S. economy this year and hold growth to a tepid 2.4 percent, according to a survey of forecasters published on Monday.

The National Association for Business Economics said that more than 95 percent of the 49 economists who participated in its latest quarterly survey believe fiscal policy actions or concerns would slice into gross domestic product.

 

These are the first two paragraphs of a news item on the Huffington Post last night.

I’m having some difficulty with this forecast for the following reasons.

Forty-nine people make a very small and insignificant sample.  Any economist should know that.

business_peopleJust because somebody thinks something will happen doesn’t mean it will happen.

Just because somebody wants something to happen doesn’t mean it will happen.

Just because somebody believes something will happen doesn’t mean it will happen.

If these guys don’t say what their employers want to hear they will probably become unemployed.

Economists in general have not recently had a good track record with their predictions.

In a previous reincarnation I was a charter member of the skeptics association.

In this case a poll of ordinary people who are experiencing the realities of the economic crisis might be more accurate.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: