Some concerns about the Swiss money creation referendum

The Swiss are going to hold a referendum on a proposal to change the way in which money is created by transferring this function from private banks to the central bank.  The more I think about this the more I see it as an attack on banks by people who do not really understand what money is and how the financial system functions, or should I say by people whose understanding of money is different from mine.

I believe there are some serious problems with the current fractional reserve way of creating money and anything which might lead to reform is to be encouraged.  However, I would like to see some debate rather than letting those who would tell the rest of us how to live win by default.  I want to see a libertarian reform in which decision-making is by all individuals rather than a select few.

Here are two links to information about the referendum. One, two.

Money is a tool to facilitate the exchange of goods and services and is backed by the agricultural surplus of which we have a huge amount although its continuation is somewhat precarious.  The fractional reserve way of creating money gives great power to bankers who create money each time they make a loan.  The Swiss critics are right about that. Money represents purchasing power for people who hold it and those who create money can decide to whom they will transfer that purchasing power. Transferring the money creation function to the central banks would be transferring power from one small group to another. I am not certain bureaucrats would be any better at making decisions in the public interest than private bankers.

A more libertarian approach would be to combine monetary reform with a universal income scheme and to call money agricultural surplus credits.  This is explained in my just released ebook Funny Money: Adapting to a Down Economy.  The book also talks about the problems with fractional reserve banking. (You may get a free copy of this book from Smashwords until March 19, 2016. See previous post.)

In reforming the way in which we create money two other factors need to be considered.  The total amount of money available needs to be flexible up and down as the quantity of good and services exchanged varies. If it is not flexible we should expect inflation or deflation, both of which rob people of their savings.  The Swiss proposal says the central bank would use its statistics facilities to help in this.

The other concern is interest.  I believe the charging of interest on loans is a Ponzi scheme which leads to periodic financial crises.  This too is in the book. I did not see anything in the proposal to indicate how interest would be handled.  It could be the people who crafted the proposal do not see that interest is a problem in money creation.

I fear that not too many people truly understand how money works in the economy and how the fractional reserve way of creating money is a serious problem.  Reforms are needed although I can not see that transferring money creation from one small group to another small group will be a satisfactory reform.

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Free Funny Money

Here is a free promotional giveaway of the new ebook Funny Money: Adapting to a down economy.  This book is now available on Amazon Kindle and Smashwords.  The next step is for me to make some formatting corrections so Smashwords can distribute it to a number of book stores.

FunnyMoneyArtPowell-final

Smashwords allows authors to create coupons for discounts and free giveaways.  I have made a coupon to give this book away free for about two weeks. The code is HS63E and it expires on March 19, 2016

The book is available at: https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/620310

The book is also available at the Kindle book store at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B01CH1LF6W?*Version*=1&*entries*=0  

at the regular price of 99 cents. So far as I know Amazon does not allow the free giveaway for the publishing option I have chosen.

This book is critical of some aspects of economics and endorses others. The author, who has also read history and anthropology, questions economic growth and the fractional reserve way of creating money. He has come to terms with the market economic model as a set of guidelines for economic policy. The current economic crisis is resource based in that we have used up the most easily accessible of energy and mineral resouces.  We need a guaranteed income scheme and a new way of creating money.

Will the coming infrastructure crises be one of finances or resources?

Following a weekend of driving a highway in British Columbia one has to believe this article in The Economist which claims it will cost $57 trillion to build and maintain the infrastructure the world needs between now and 2030.  And the road (Part of the Trans Canada highway between Sicamous and Golden) really wasn’t that bad.

The Economist writer is concerned with who will provide the finances for the needed work.  I think financial people are generally very good at creating money when there is a need.   The real problem is: will there be enough energy and mineral resources at a reasonable cost?   There will be lots of resources but we have already used up the most easily accessible and those that are left will take a lot of energy to access. Energy for infrastructure will be competing with all the other things we want to have and do.

One of the issues will be priorities.  Most of us, most of the time act and think in our own short-term interests as opposed to the long-term interests of our communities and even own long-term interests.  We may know that a bridge is past its prime but so long as it remains intact it will be a long-term project and sacrificed for other things that are short-term.  When the bridge was first built it was a short-term need.

Most of the current infrastructure was built during our golden years of prosperity and people were optimistic.  Most of us are now aware there are problems in the economy even if we don’t know why.  There will be people who will risk their savings on long-term investments for a good potential return but I suspect a lot of people will be hesitant to take the risk.

The current infrastructure projects mentioned in the article are along way from the total of $57 trillion which will be needed.  We might be wise to stock up on duct tape.

Speaking of Bridges, the pictures are of one of my favorites: The Kicking Horse Pedestrian Bridge in Golden, B.C. A link.

 

 

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Payday loans, slavery and money creation

What is the marginal cost of making a payday loan? Or any other type of loan?  The answer to this question should help to answer a question about interest rates on loans raised in the Buttonwood column of The Economist, November 30, 2013 issue. What interest rates should lenders be allowed to charge?

Unfortunately loans and credit are complicated beyond simple economics because the making of loans is an instrument of exploitation even to the point of slavery and because credit is involved in how we create money.

Economic theory tells us that so long as there is competition the price of a product should be equal to the marginal cost of producing that product.  Therefore for loans the marginal cost would be the cost to the lender of acquiring the money to loan (i.e. the interest paid to the depositor of for payday lenders to their source of funds) plus the operating costs and the cost of loans written off.  The legitimate interest rate to charge on a loan should be easy to calculate and for banks we can compare the rates they pay on deposits and the rates they charge for loans.

It appears the need for credit is almost universal at least in large-scale economies.  I’m not sure about hunting and gathering groups which practice a sharing economy.  It appears there has always been a need for short-term lending of the type done by payday lenders.

The problem is that the making of loans can be an instrument of exploitation.  One of the quickest ways to get control over a person is to lend them some money.  In peasant societies people borrow to put on funerals and weddings and if they cannot repay they sometimes find themselves in slavery.

In our own society there are probably lots of people with dreams of doing something other than the daily employment but they are unable because of their debt load.  All this consumer debt works as an instrument of social control for the one percent.  So long as we are in debt we work to support their goals and interests rather than for our own.  If a person wants to be truly free one should try to live without  borrowing.

As for payday loans Mr./Mrs./Miss/Ms Buttonwood says:

“Provided the terms of the loan are made clear, then it should be up to borrowers to decide whether to accept the costs involved. An interest rate is simply the price of money.”

Once again this is simple economics without the human factor.  For many people there are times when  it may not be easy “to decide whether to accept the costs involved.”

The other complication with lending is that our money supply is based on fractional reserve loans by financial institutions.  As money is essential for the exchange of goods and services it is also essential that we carry a debt load.  Says Buttonwood

“But businesses and consumers are positively encouraged to borrow. Indeed, when debt growth slows, as it has in recent years, an air of panic develops about how to get it going again.”

There are a number of problems with the fractional reserve method of creating money, most of which have been discussed elsewhere on this weblog and especially in the essay “LETS go to market: Dealing with the economic crisis.”  Basically it is a Ponzi scheme which is urgently in need of reform.

The reform proposed in that essay, a national Local Exchange Trading System (LETS) should also help with the need for short-term credit.  It would be a lot less exploitive as no interest would be charged and control over the money supply would be in the hands of all people.  A national LETS system would transfer a lot of economic decision-making from bankers and governments to individuals.

There are consumer loans and there are business loans.  Loans are a transfer of purchasing power from one person  to another and interest is compensation for the transfer.  A LETS system  should take care of the need for short-term consumer  credit.  The compensation for business loans should come out of the profits in which case they should be considered equity.

Back to the question of caps on interest charged on payday loans.  Is it the role of government to prevent some of its citizens from exploiting others?  If yes, then governments should limit interest  rates  charged (marginal cost is a guideline) or find another way of creating money so that the need for short-term consumer credit is easily satisfied.

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Government debt default and the money supply

A United States debt default will hit the economy as a reduction of government spending and it could also  hurt by forcing changes in the money supply.

The first thing to say about debt is that there is so much of it around the world that there is a high probability most of it will be written off either by defaults of inflation.  This debt is not so much borrowing from children as a transfer of purchasing power within this generation, some/most of which will never be returned. And those with the most are likely to lose the most but will still probably be more comfortable than the rest of us.

The second thing to say is that the probable root  cause of the economic crisis is in the real side of the economy as well as the financial sector.  We have used up most of the easily accessible energy and mineral resources and those that are left take a lot more work to extract.

If the United States defaults  some of its debt the government will have less money to spend.  As government spending is a component of gross domestic product there will be a reduction in economic activity.  Government spending currently makes up about 20 percent of GDP but only a small part of this will likely be cut immediately.

The effect of a debt default on the money supply is more complex and uncertain.  A drastic reduction in the money supply would bring a lot of economic activity to a halt.

Money is based on loans issued by the banks, involves fractional reserves (they are required to keep a percentage of deposits as reserves)  and dependant upon what is called high powered money which is subject to a multiplier because of the fractional reserves. (for and explanation of how money is created see these links, one, two.)  In a default one issue would be how much the losses fall upon institutions subject to fractional reserves because losses would reduce their reserves.  A reduction in their reserves would bring down the quantity of loans they could make – by a multiplier.  Thus the money supply in the economy would be reduced and without money the exchange of goods and services becomes difficult.

Under normal circumstances a reduction in the money supply would mean a reduction in the real economy.  But the real economy is already in trouble as noted above.

At this point I need to remind you of the formula MV=PQ.  The money supply times its velocity or the rate at which it changes hands is equal to prices or a price index times the quantity of goods and services.

In an attempt to stimulate the economy central banks have been using “quantitative easing” to inject more high powered money into the financial system so the banks will have more money to lend.   If the above formula is correct then there should have been a reduction in velocity or an increase in prices (inflation) or economic activity.  It may be that velocity has fallen but there is little evidence that inflation or GDP has increased.

If the formula is correct then something has to have happened to one of the other variables.   One possibility is that at least some of this extra money has gone into the financial markets and inflation has hit stocks.  If this is correct, then a reduction in money supply could hit the financial sector.

So there you have it a U.S. default would probably lead to a reduction in economic activity and it could also cause problems in the financial markets.  I just had a horrible thought.  What would happen if a lot of the major countries were to default at the same time?

Why we can’t let banks fail

It appears investors are putting money into banks in the belief the banks are safe because governments can be relied upon to bail them out the next time they get into trouble.  These investors could be right.

It’s not so much that banks are too big to fail, it is more that they are too important to let fail.

Banks are essential in creating the money supply. When banks make a loan they create money and the total money supply is increased.. When the loan is repaid, the money supply decreases until the money is re-loaned and the supply goes back up.   Thus the money supply is constant – until a central bank purchases government bonds.  Because the central bank pays for these bonds by adding to the liabilities of its balance sheet, this is the creation of new money.   But because of fractional reserve requirements (banks are required to hold a percentage of deposits in reserve against withdrawals) money created by the central bank is called high powered money and the money supply goes up with a multiplier effect.

institution_iconAll this is explained in any textbook on the economics of money and banking. What I have never seen explained is the effect on the money supply when a bank writes off a loan. Probably it has the reverse effect of high powered money – a decreased money supply subject to the same multiplier. (Here is a link to the wikipedia article on money creation.)

In most cases the writing off of loans will have little effect on the money supply However, if the amounts to be written off are large as was the case with the American housing crisis or is likely to be the case with any sovereign debt write off, the impact on the money supply will be substantial and it we lead to an abrupt decline economic activity. People will invent alternatives to the lost money but the initial devastation will be  a problem.

 The Americans are considering cutting back on their food stamp program.  My prediction is that when the next financial crisis happens, keeping the banks going will come before feeding people.

One way to reduce the importance and power of the banks would be to find a new way of creating money.  One proposal for doing this is in the essay “LETS go to market: Dealing with the economic crisis” on this weblog.

Let’s end this post with the following quote attributed to Henry Ford.

“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”

(This is an update of a post originally published in June, 2011.)

 

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What caused the financial collapse?

Here are four causes of the financial crisis not based on conventional economic wisdom:  the way in which we our economy creates money, the using up of the most accessible energy and mineral resources, the greed of most of us and imprudent or fraudulent banking practices which allow bankers to make excessive profits.

For a more conventional explanation see this article in The Economist.

We all use money and many people are very good at “making” money but very few understand its function and how it is created.  As gold and other items have traditionally been used as money we treat it as a commodity with some value of its own.  But money is a tool to facilitate the exchange of goods and services.  It is a token of purchasing power.  It is important that we have just the right amount of money to use otherwise we have inflation (too much money for the transactions we want) or deflation (not enough).

The money we use results from fractional reserve banking in which banks are required to keep a percentage of their deposits as reserves.  How this works is explained in the essay “LETS go to market: Dealing with the crisis” on this weblog.  It is complex but I find it  easy to understand.

Our money supply is based on loans made by banks and upon which they charge interest. For this system to work there must be a continuously increasing supply of money which sort of works so long as the economy is growing.  However, even a slowdown can cause problems because we need the right amount of money for the number of economic transactions.   I think this is a Ponzi scheme and therefore it is bound to collapse.  Periodic financial crises are built into the way we create money.  This is one of the causes of the current crisis.  When the U.S. mortgage bubble burst the money supply and the financial system collapsed.

There are two sides to the economic equation.  One side deals with the financial and the other with the physical goods that provide us with food, shelter, clothing. transportation and toys.

Since the industrial revolution we have been living in unprecedented increasing prosperity.  However there is some evidence that since the 1970s the growth of this prosperity has been slowing down and maybe even declining.  My theory to explain this is that we have used up the most easily accessible of the energy and mineral resources and it now takes more energy to recover what is left.  To use jargon, the marginal costs have increased.  This is bound to affect standards of living as more effort must be applied to resource extraction and less to other things.  This is background to the financial crisis.

Wall Street bankers are the kings of greed who got their riches partly be being in the right place at the right time.  They also make good scapegoats.

A scapegoat is somebody you blame for the consequences of your own weaknesses.  Most if not all of us have some greed and this was a factor in the financial crisis.  Before and since the crisis many people wanted the most they could get.  This includes the savers and investors who wanted the greatest returns to the poorer people who wanted housing they couldn’t afford.  Every time I go to the ATM machine or actually enter the bank I am reminded the financial industry is still appealing to the greed of its customers.

The final cause of the financial crisis is that bankers are smart enough to realize they can increase their margins and make huge profits by mismatching the terms of deposits and loans.  At the best this is imprudent.  It could even be fraud.

Bankers are financial intermediaries in that they collect deposits and make them into loans.  The difference in interest rates provide a margin which covers their expenses and provides some profits.  Prudent banking requires that the terms of the deposits and loans match.  Thus if a banker makes a loan for ten years then he should have on hand ten-year term deposits of the same amount.  Breaking this rule can be very dangerous and very profitable.

The reason for breaking the rule is that the longer the loan the greater the risk and therefore the higher the interest rate which will be charged on the loan and which must be paid to get deposits committed for the same time. A banker who finances a long-term loan with short-term deposits can increase his margin.  Prior to the financial crisis the banks were financing long-term mortgage loans with short-term deposits, some of the deposits were committed just for one day at a time.  This worked well when the economy was going well but when it became apparent there were problems the depositors became worried about their money and refused to roll them over.  As banks are required to only keep a fraction of their deposits on hand there was a limited number of depositors who could be refunded.

I think this should be considered fraud against the depositors or in this case the taxpayers who covered the losses.  It was necessary for the government to step in  because we would have lost even more of our money supply and that would have been disastrous.  The question which probably should not be asked: are bankers continuing to mismatch deposits and loans?

So there you have it, my list of four factors which contributed to the crisis.  All of these will be challenging to change.  Some ideas for change are in my essay “LETS go to market: Dealing with the economic crisis.”

 

If you liked this post your are invited to comment, press the like button and/or click  one of the share buttons. If you disagree you are invited to say why in a comment.  While I like the idea of sharing this platform, my personality is such that I don’t reply to many comments.

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