Why your savings and pensions are at risk

The fractional reserve way of creating money means a lot of people are at risk of losing all or part of their savings and pensions.

If there is too much money supply in the economy then we have inflation and people with savings or pensions lose some of their purchasing power and those who owe money benefit because they repay their loans with less purchasing power.  Now you know why governments and the people who speak on their behalf promote mild inflation.  This is at least unauthorized taxation if not theft.

pexels-photo-2105902If you have deflation, then people who are owed money win because they are repaid with more purchasing power than they loaned.  The borrowers lose because they have to repay with more purchasing power.

To be fair to everyone we need to manage the economy so that just the right amount of money is available at all times.  At a time when the economy is on a down trend, this is very important as too much money puts us in danger of hyperinflation.

Getting this amount right has long been a challenge to central banks although the common sense answer is fairly simple.  The money supply should vary with the quantity of goods and services we want to exchange and it should be flexible up and down.

The wrench in the simplicity is the fractional reserve way of creating money.  When banks make loans they must (or should) keep a fraction of the amount on reserve for when the depositor wants his/her money returned.  As the amount is only a fraction banks are at risk of a “run” if depositors lose faith.  And because of the fractional reserve there is a multiplier effect involved.  Does not this sound like a set up for a crisis?  The mechanics of this process are a little complex although I have always found it easy to understand. To figure it out I suggest you Google “fractional reserve” or look at my free e book Funny Money: Adapting to a Down Economy or look at the essay Going to Market on this weblog.

The other end of the wrench is  that interest is charged on the loans made by the banks.  Mainstream economists have given little or no thought to the consequences of this. Because all of our money is created by the making of loans, if all the outstanding debt were to be paid off at one time there would not be enough money to repay it all because of the interest.  The charging of interest on the debt/money means there is never enough money available to repay all outstanding debt. Inflation is built into the fractional reserve way of creating money.

The system works only so long as the economy and the money supply continues to grow.  An upset in either means crisis of which we have had many.

The relationship between money supply and economic output is expressed in a formula, MV=PQ, some times known as the quantity theory of money.  Money times the velocity at which it circulates in the economy is equal to a price index times the quantity of goods and services produced.

I get ticked off because this is frequently taken to mean there is a direct, proportional relationship between the money supply and the inflation rate or price level.   Can’t people see there are four variables in this formula?  Total output is an important part of this formula.  If it should happen to go down something needs to happen to another variable.

Our society has a strong commitment to economic growth and a need to keep it growing so that people will not suffer from unemployment.   Some desperate people are trying to stimulate growth by increasing the money supply. This may increase inflation but it will not lead to growth unless we can find inexpensive energy and mineral resources to support it.  I suspect the new American president has  his eye on parks and reserve lands to encourage more economic activity.  He will probably succeed in the short term to be followed by a major economic collapse.

This blogger thinks we need some major economic reforms, not only in our financial system but in our commitment to economic growth.  We need to minimize our production and exchange of goods and services so we are using fewer energy and mineral resources.

A lot  of people operate on faith in our financial system and ignore suggestions we need reform.  I think the risk is so great that prudent people will at least give some thought to these issues.  It is your savings and your pensions and your future that is at risk.



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The gold standard, printing money and getting the right amount

A return to the gold standard and the printing of money to provide a social dividend have recently been suggested on LinkedIn and Reddit as ways to deal with the economic crisis.  The gold standard and the printing of money have been both tried with disastrous results.  To the best of my knowledge the social dividend has not been tried but I see it as a guaranteed annual income and I believe it has a lot of potential – subject to paying attention to the amount of money in the economy.

The problem  with the gold standard is that it can cause recession because it limits the amount of money to facilitate the exchange of goods and services.  The problem with printing money is that it can lead to inflation which wipes out people’s savings.

The key to financial economic nirvana is to have just the right amount of money for the quantity of goods and services a society wants to exchange.  Too much money leads to inflation and too little money leads to deflation and a curtailment of economic activity.   The amount of money needs to be flexible to follow the ups and downs of economic activity.

At several times during their history Americans have tried to follow a gold standard.  Generally the result was depression.  In the 1930s the monetary authorities tried to restrict the amount of money in circulation and the result was depression.  The exception was during the gold rushes of the late 19th century when the newly discovered gold allowed the money supply to increase along with economic growth.

Following the first world war the German Weimar republic had lots of financial obligations.  As the external obligations were requiring gold the government met its internal obligations by printing money.  As the money was printed faster than economic activity increased that country experienced inflation which became hyperinflation.  The result was that the savings of most people became worthless.

The social dividend proposal was a feature of Social Credit which had its origins in England in the 1920s and prospered in Alberta and British Columbia.  At least in British Columbia the social dividend was forgotten and the party became a right of centre business coalition.

To the best of my knowledge the social dividend has not been tried.  I think it should be so long as the amount of money in the economy is close to the amount needed.

Money is something we all use and we teach our children at an early age how to manage their money.  However,  very few people understand the economics of money and especially how money is created. I believe that if we are to resolve economic problems we have to understand the economics of money and banking.  The essay “LETS go to market: Dealing with the economic crisis”  talks about how money is created, some of the problems with fractional reserve money which we currently use and proposes an alternative way of creating money based on Local Exchange Trading Systems.  Also a number of posts on this weblog have dealt with money.  Here they are.

Money is a highly emotional issue in part because our culture has raised us to believe that our future depends upon our having adequate savings.  As it is so important one would think people would be wanting to understand it and be prepared to consider reforms as there are such emotional costs to losing it.

I believe the fractional reserve way of creating money is a Ponzi scheme and has built into it a mechanism for forcing a continuous increase in the money supply regardless of increases or decreases in economic activity.  As a part of money creation reform we should look at incorporating a social dividend or universal income scheme.

However the money process is reformed an essential feature is that the money supply should be flexible up and down according to changes in the level of economic growth or degrowth.

Low wages and supply and demand for people

One has to have a great deal of sympathy and understanding for those fast food workers demanding a living wage and one also has to fear that the supply and demand for bodies will keep them down.

There are lots of other people, out of sight and/or not counted,  struggling to survive on low incomes.  They too deserve compassion and understanding.

It has been said that the profits of the fast food industry are sufficient to double the wages of all its workers.  This is not the issue.  The issue is that wages are determined by supply and demand.  The reality is that there are more people than there are jobs.  Some firms have demonstrated they can make good profits by paying their employees well but human nature is such that most employers will continue to pay as little as they can.

Technology has reduced the need for workers and reduced transportation costs have increased the supply of workers from other countries.

With the world economy in crash mode the plight of low-income people is likely to continue and even get worse. At the same time a few will continue to get richer.  The one thing which could level the field would be hyperinflation which would hurt everyone.

Another indication of the oversupply of workers is the declining power of private sector unions.  Public sector unions are still doing well because they have monopoly and political power.  I would have more respect for teachers’ unions if they were to go on strike demanding an increase in well fare rates.

I believe subsidies should be given to consumers rather than producers.  Therefore I would like to see some sort of universal income scheme such as a guaranteed annual income or the negative income tax proposed by Milton Friedman.  This probably would not halt the economic decline but would be fairer than the way we now treat people.  It may be that the American dream is just a  dream.

Tax avoidance through the ages

A sure way to commit suicide would be to hold one’s breath waiting for the G8 leaders to actually clamp down on money laundering, illegal tax evasion, and corporate tax avoidance.  It’s theater in which the politicians can pretend to deal with a problem while listening to the lobbyists who want even more loopholes.

Through the millenia those in the elites have taken for themselves the agricultural and luxury surplus mostly using force or coercion.  With the industrial revolution things changed.  Production increased so that there was some to share and the supply and demand for labor to produce that production was such that workers could claim some.

In this new situation the most effective way to cream off a big chunk of the surplus was to get governments to pass legislation restricting competition.  Thus we have trade restrictions, licensing requirements and patent and copyright legislation.

As the economy has gone into an extended decline tax avoidance has become another effective means for getting an excessive share.

Both of these approaches provide lots of work for lobbyists and most politicians are willing listeners.

So we now have increasing inequality, a concern for some but not all people.   The rich keep getting richer and more people are sliding onto or over the margin.

Even if we come up with a non-violent way to eliminate the rich it would not solve the problem as the rest of us would be lined up to take their places.  The most effective way to deal with the rich would be an economic crash and/or hyperinflation, but that would get the rest of us as well.

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