Pensions: Promises and reality

It is difficult for this blogger to get excited about pensions because he grew up to Doris Day singing “Whatever will be, will be“.  I heard that song so many times I still believe it.

There are two things that make pensions difficult.  They are part of a big business and they involve promises to be redeemed  in an unknown future.

This post was inspired by this article in The Economist about pension problems in Taiwan but the ideas here apply anywhere around the world where people rely upon pensions for their future.

Pensions are a problem because we evaluate economic problems in monetary terms and assume there will be no inflation or deflation.  We would get a more accurate evaluation if we did it in physical terms.  The reality is that our future standards of living depend upon the ratio of population to the quantity of goods and services we will be capable of producing. Monetary savings will probably be irrelevant thanks to inflation or bankruptcy.

We know, or we should know, from experience that the economic growth is fractal in nature rather than linear as we learned in university economics.  Being fractal means there are a series of ups and downs and sometimes major changes in direction.  There is some evidence that we are experiencing a major turning down.  This blogger  believes current economic problems are because we have used up the most easily accessible energy and mineral resources.  Yes, there are lots left but they require so much energy to extract they are mostly useless.  Regardless of what financial people say there may  be some grim prospects. If this analysis is correct the best career and investment is a market garden.

Pensions and other forms of savings are a big business in which sales people earn  commissions and profits on current sales.  They are selling promises for a future they probably will not have to keep.  The reality is that there may not be enough resources to keep them.

To believe in pensions one must have a lot of faith that the world is going to continue as it is for the rest of one’s life.  We can sometimes see into the near future but the further out we look the more blurred is our vision.

Back to Doris Day.

 

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Why your savings and pensions are at risk

The fractional reserve way of creating money means a lot of people are at risk of losing all or part of their savings and pensions.

If there is too much money supply in the economy then we have inflation and people with savings or pensions lose some of their purchasing power and those who owe money benefit because they repay their loans with less purchasing power.  Now you know why governments and the people who speak on their behalf promote mild inflation.  This is at least unauthorized taxation if not theft.

pexels-photo-2105902If you have deflation, then people who are owed money win because they are repaid with more purchasing power than they loaned.  The borrowers lose because they have to repay with more purchasing power.

To be fair to everyone we need to manage the economy so that just the right amount of money is available at all times.  At a time when the economy is on a down trend, this is very important as too much money puts us in danger of hyperinflation.

Getting this amount right has long been a challenge to central banks although the common sense answer is fairly simple.  The money supply should vary with the quantity of goods and services we want to exchange and it should be flexible up and down.

The wrench in the simplicity is the fractional reserve way of creating money.  When banks make loans they must (or should) keep a fraction of the amount on reserve for when the depositor wants his/her money returned.  As the amount is only a fraction banks are at risk of a “run” if depositors lose faith.  And because of the fractional reserve there is a multiplier effect involved.  Does not this sound like a set up for a crisis?  The mechanics of this process are a little complex although I have always found it easy to understand. To figure it out I suggest you Google “fractional reserve” or look at my free e book Funny Money: Adapting to a Down Economy or look at the essay Going to Market on this weblog.

The other end of the wrench is  that interest is charged on the loans made by the banks.  Mainstream economists have given little or no thought to the consequences of this. Because all of our money is created by the making of loans, if all the outstanding debt were to be paid off at one time there would not be enough money to repay it all because of the interest.  The charging of interest on the debt/money means there is never enough money available to repay all outstanding debt. Inflation is built into the fractional reserve way of creating money.

The system works only so long as the economy and the money supply continues to grow.  An upset in either means crisis of which we have had many.

The relationship between money supply and economic output is expressed in a formula, MV=PQ, some times known as the quantity theory of money.  Money times the velocity at which it circulates in the economy is equal to a price index times the quantity of goods and services produced.

I get ticked off because this is frequently taken to mean there is a direct, proportional relationship between the money supply and the inflation rate or price level.   Can’t people see there are four variables in this formula?  Total output is an important part of this formula.  If it should happen to go down something needs to happen to another variable.

Our society has a strong commitment to economic growth and a need to keep it growing so that people will not suffer from unemployment.   Some desperate people are trying to stimulate growth by increasing the money supply. This may increase inflation but it will not lead to growth unless we can find inexpensive energy and mineral resources to support it.  I suspect the new American president has  his eye on parks and reserve lands to encourage more economic activity.  He will probably succeed in the short term to be followed by a major economic collapse.

This blogger thinks we need some major economic reforms, not only in our financial system but in our commitment to economic growth.  We need to minimize our production and exchange of goods and services so we are using fewer energy and mineral resources.

A lot  of people operate on faith in our financial system and ignore suggestions we need reform.  I think the risk is so great that prudent people will at least give some thought to these issues.  It is your savings and your pensions and your future that is at risk.

 

 

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Pensions and dreams

Many people like to dream about the things they will do in retirement and count on their pensions and savings to make the dreams come true.  For lots of current seniors this has been true but younger people may not get beyond the dream.  All the uncertainties of the economic future come to the fore when one starts thinking about pensions.

One hears two major concerns about pensions:  most  people are not saving enough and too many pensions are based on unfunded liabilities.

The one certainty about retirement futures is that well-being and standard of living will depend upon the quantity of goods and services we are capable of producing and the number of people with whom those goods and services must be shared.  Inflation or bankruptcies could easily wipe out  pensions and savings. In any case an increasing population and people living longer into retirement will put pressure on pensions.

There are two ways we can try to ensure our futures into retirement – we can work our butts off in an attempt to return to economic growth or we can reduce our expectations so that we don’t need so need so many goods and services.  It is possible the second option will be forced upon us.  That may not be all bad.  This blogger knows from experience that canoe camping is a lot cheaper and more enjoyable than the large cruise ships..   I also have to recognize that camping would be a lot less fun if we had to share the lake with 2,000 people at a time.

Most  of us are subject to a lot of media hype about the importance of pensions and saving for retirement.  We should keep in mind that we are in for the long-term while the people selling investments are more interested in their next pay cheque.  What is good for them may not be good for their customers and by the time you find out you may not even remember their name.

Some people are worried about government pensions and see private investments as the answer.  I figure the whole financial system is at risk of either inflation or bankruptcy.

In planning for the future we have to evaluate the potential for a return to economic growth.  If one believes we are going to return to growth then it might  be okay to put a lot of effort into a pension.  .  Personally, I think the best long-term investment at this time is a market garden.

 

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The complexities and limitations of freedom

We value “freedom”  so much that people have lost their “freedom” by fighting to death for it.  But it is a complex concept with lots of limitations.

This post was inspired by an article on economic freedom with a nice graph showing we now have more economic freedom than we have ever had..  I was too lazy to try to figure it out but it did get me thinking.

Definitions are sometimes fuzzy. For for this post there are two aspects to freedom.  There is the freedom to make decisions and to act accordingly and there is the freedom from having to do what others tell us.

The main factor affecting our freedom is the agricultural surplus because that relieves us of the drudgery of producing or gathering or hunting for food.  The less time we use for food the more time we have with which to do what we want or which other people want us to do.  If the agricultural surplus per person were to decrease we may find ourselves with less freedom.

Freedom varies in different parts of our lives.  In British Columbia we have freedom of religion and can attend any church of our choosing – or mostly not.  However, we are required by law to educate our children.  The options are home schooling, a few expensive  private schools (mostly religious) or public schools (in effect a monopoly) over which we have very little say.  So we have freedom of religion but very little freedom as to how we educate our children.

Here are some of the things which limit our ability to make and act on decisions.

Our own values, morals and religion.  If your religion tells you salvation comes from work, then that limits your right to goof off.  The work ethic is part of many people’s belief system but it is also very much in the interests of people who want others to work for them.

The values, morals and religion of other people.  The most evil of all people are those who try to force their values, morals and religion upon others.  Unfortunately my belief in this evil does not stop others from trying and often succeeding.  The greatest evil comes when these people get into government.

Politicians and their bureaucrats sometimes like to tell the rest of us how to live and our commitment to the “rule of law” gives them means to do so.  Try to sell unpasteurized milk in Canada and you will probably have a rule of law learning experience.

At least in the industrial countries many people worry, and probably rightly so, about their pensions and their well-being in retirement.  This could be a natural need for security or it could be a result of marketing by the financial industry.  In any case it limits our freedom to do things that do not contribute to a pension plan such as extended travel or going to live in the forest.  The problem is that our well-being in retirement will depend up on the quantity of goods and services the economy is capable of producing at that time.  Pensions and savings are vulnerable to inflation or bankruptcy.

Economics is about relationships and relationships can  be both supportive of freedom or restrictive.  I believe relationships are most satisfactory when there is a more or less equal exchange but there is no law which states that relationships have to be satisfactory.  Relationships are as complex as the personalities of the participants.  The key to happiness may be in finding a partner whose personality compliments our own.

I have long believed that little girls should not be allowed to play with dolls because they learn that they can have relationships in which they have total control over actions and thoughts.  When they grow up this tends to limit the freedom of their husbands.  Us guys have to learn to be assertive.

It may be that some people can’t cope with a lot of freedom and seek out life situations where their right to make their own decisions is limited.  Erich Fromm was concerned about populations giving up political freedom to dictators and wrote a book in 1941 called Escape From Freedom.

There are people who feel they have the right to tell others how to live their lives and these people limit the freedom of others.  There may have been times and places where these people could use force but at least is some places today force is not easy.  It is much less messy to use psychological tactics.  For example the work ethic,  fears about future security or psychological marketing can be used to encourage people to do what somebody else wants them to do.

It may be the great industrial societies in which some of us live and which we associate with freedom were in fact created because most people have given up a some of the freedom of the agricultural surplus.  Sometimes I think we have overdone the technological development and work for the sake of work although there is a lot I would not want to give up.

Freedom appears to be a complex concept which varies by individual and by the different aspects of our lives. Those of us who value the right to make our own decisions should fare reasonable well and those with a submissive personality should find it easy to meet their needs.

 

If you liked this post your are invited to comment, press the like button and/or click  one of the share buttons. If you disagree you are invited to say why in a comment.  While I like the idea of sharing this platform, my personality is such that I don’t reply to many comments.

The morality of austerity and inflation

Somebody on LinkedIn has asked if austerity is a morality issue.

Of  course austerity is a morality issue but so is inflation.

Austerity is a moral issue because it inflicts unemployment and hardship on some people.  Inflation is a moral issue because it is a form of theft in that it reduces  the purchasing power of savings and pensions.  The opposite to austerity is government stimulus spending but it is not clear we can have stimulus without inflation.

So the challenge is to design a way of exchanging goods and services and a money system to facilitate that exchange such that there is no inflation or deflation.  To do this we will have to first challenge all sorts of motherhood issues with regard to money, work and economics.

 

If you liked this post your are invited to comment, press the like button and/or click  one of the share buttons. If you disagree you are invited to say why in a comment.  While I like the idea of sharing this platform, my personality is such that I don’t reply to many comments.

Investments, gullibility and trust

If you have some savings to invest I urge you to first read this fascinating column about a Ponzi scheme in the Philippines.  If you already have invested some savings, including a pension fund, I urge to read the column and evaluate your position.

The column is about he nature of gullibility and trust and what the author calls the inflation of trust.  It is what allows Ponzi schemes to suck in their victims.

The reason I encourage you to read it is that I think it describes the psychology behind the operation of the larger investment industry.  Through the years there have been financial collapses in  which lots of people have lost lots of money.  Regardless of what the financial salesmen might promise there is a high probability it will happen again.  This explains why and how.

 

If you liked this post your are invited to comment, press the like button and/or click  one of the share buttons. If you disagree you are invited to say why in a comment.  While I like the idea of sharing this platform, my personality is such that I don’t reply to many comments.

Should retirement savings be forced?

An article on the CBC news website asks if Canadians should be forced to save for retirement.

The article points out that some people pushing for this are in the financial industry and have a vested interest in getting more people to put money into retirement funds.

I would point out our well-being and standard of living in retirement will depend upon the ratio of population to the quantity of goods and services being produced at the time of one’s retirement.  At this time it is not clear what that ratio will be next year let alone into the future.

There are three risks facing retirement savings.  Inflation could wipe them out,  the institutions holding them could go broke or they could bed lost to fraud.  The longer the term the greater the risks.

I still think the best investment is a market garden.

I would refer you to the story at the start of the previous post on this blog.

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